May 1, 2021

In Assam, BJP looks to create history by becoming the only non-Congress government to win consecutive terms

Most exit polls show BJP winning somewhere between 60-80 seats as compared to the 86 it won during the 2016 Assembly elections.


Although exit polls point towards a return of the Sarbananda Sonowal-led government, all is not great for the saffron party this time. Most exit polls show BJP winning somewhere between 60-80 seats as compared to the 86 it won during the 2016 Assembly elections. Senior leaders of the party, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, party president JP Nadda and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, had repeatedly spoken about going past the 100-mark which, as per the exit polls, looks like a distant dream.


The India Today-Axis My India exit poll has predicted wins in 75-85 seats for the NDA. The Congress’s grand-alliance is likely to win 40-50 seats, it says.

The Manorama News-VMR exit poll has also predicted the same numbers of seats for the ruling and opposition alliances.


The P-MARQ exit poll says the grand alliance might win 56-64 seats. The BJP is likely to get 62-70 seats, it says.

The Republic TV-CNX exit poll also predicts an easy win for the BJP. According to the poll, the BJP and its allies are winning 74-84 seats, whereas the Congress-led alliance will win 40-50 seats.

The majority mark in Assam is 64.


The ABP News-C Voter poll predicts a neck-and-neck contest. It says the NDA win will 58-71 seats; the Congress-led alliance is likely to win 53-66 seats.

News 24-Today’s Chanakya exit poll says the BJP-led alliance is likely to win 70 seats. The grand-alliance might win 56 seats, it says.

One of the BJP’s trump cards this Assembly polls was its steady consolidation of its Hindu vote base. Over the years, the BJP has sought to politicise the issue of influx in Assam, often accusing the previous Congress governments of harbouring illegal Muslim immigrants in exchange for political support. It is this narrative that helped them come to power in 2016 and this time as well, the party followed a similar course, denouncing the Congress-led alliance as an “Alliance of Mughals” that is opposed to Assam’s indigenous interests.

Senior BJP leader and Assam cabinet minister Himanta Biswa Sarma had launched a blitzkrieg against the alliance for including AIUDF into its fold. Sarma said the Congress’s alliance with the AIUDF turned these polls into a “conflict of civilisations” alleging that the AIUDF was a communal party, referring to the party’s predominantly Bengali Muslim base.


This campaign helped the party put contentious issues like the Citizenship Amendment Act and the National Register of Citizens into the backburner.

Going by the exit polls, it seems parties like the AJP and Raijor Dal, whose foundation was based upon the anti-CAA protests of 2019, have failed to rake up these issues and convert them into votes.

According to the break-up of vote percentages as put out by the exit polls, rural voters and those belonging to lower income groups — who form the bulk of the electorate — appear to have a favourable opinion about the Sarbananda Sonowal government.


Despite impressive socio-economic promises such as job creation for youths, income support for housewives and land rights for indigenous people by the Congress and AJP to attract voters, what ultimately seems to have swayed voters towards the BJP was an array of beneficiary schemes launched by the government — most popular among them being the ‘Orunodoi’ scheme through which the state extends financial aid to women.


Besides these, major ethnic communities such as Karbis, Dimasas, Misings, Rabhas and Tiwas are seen standing beside the BJP again.

The only big loss, however, comes in the form of the Bodoland People’s Front joining the Grand Alliance which might help them make some gains in the Bodoland Territorial Region. The Barak Valley, which is predominantly inhabited by Bengalis, is another region where the Congress looks to win a few seats. With the help of AIUDF, the Grand Old Party is looking to sweep minority-dominated constituencies, but might plateau short of the majority mark owing to heavy losses it is expected to concede in almost all other regions.


The Congress, ahead of the polls, was also fighting to fill up the void that former Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi’s death left. Moreover, it hoped to woo tea tribes with its Rs 365 daily wage and ST status promises, but going by the exit polls, the gardens seem to remain on the saffron party’s side, just like it did during the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

Assam voted in three phases on March 27, April 1 and April 6 and according to the Election Commission, the polling turnouts were 79.93%, 80.96% and 82.33% respectively.

The ruling party has contested 92 seats in alliance with the Asom Gana Parishad, which has contested 26 seats.

In the opposition Grand Alliance, the Congress has contested 94 seats, whereas Badruddin Ajmal’s AIUDF has contested 14.

You may also like

July 30, 2021
Welcome to the club: Boxing pioneers Vijender, Mary Kom wish Lovlina

Vijender was the first Indian male boxer to win an Olympic medal in 2008, Mary Kom became the first woman to finish on podium in 2012 London edition. New Delhi: “Welcome to the club,” said the trailblazers of Indian boxing Vijender Singh and MC Mary Kom as they celebrated Lovlina Borgohain being assured of an Olympic […]

July 30, 2021
CM advocates drugs rehabilitation policy for Assam

CM Himanta Biswa Sarma said, "Even as we step up our fight against drugs, & tighten grip around perpetrators of this crime, there is a need to look ahead." Guwahati: Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma on Thursday advocated formulation of a drugs rehabilitation policy for the state and directed the health and social welfare department […]

July 30, 2021
Assam’s Lovlina Borgohain assures India of first boxing medal at Tokyo Olympics

The 23-year-old Assam boxer prevailed 4-1 to make the last-four where she will square off against reigning world champion Busenaz Surmeneli of Turkey, who hammered Ukraine's Anna Lysenko in her quarterfinal bout. Tokyo: Debutant Lovlina Borgohain (69kg) assured India of their first boxing medal at the ongoing Olympic Games when she upstaged former world champion Nien-Chin Chen of […]

July 23, 2021
Bhageerathi Amma, the oldest equivalency course student passes away

Bhageerathi Amma returned to studies in 2019 and cleared her papers as a 105-year-old student Bhageerathi Amma, the oldest equivalency course student from Kerala, passed away at Prakkulam due to age-related ailments. A recipient of the Nari Shakti Puraskar, country's highest civilian honour for women, she was 107 when she died. She had cleared Class […]

Get The latest news, opinion and much more from north east part of India and India on Midage

linkedin facebook pinterest youtube rss twitter instagram facebook-blank rss-blank linkedin-blank pinterest youtube twitter instagram